11 Picks for NFL Week 1, Browns-Cowboys
Published Friday, September 5, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
I wanted to do a weekly NFL column this year... but I wanted to take a different angle toward it than the usual, generic "these are my picks" column or "things to look for" or any of that. So I came to this conclusion.
Each week, I'm going to take the best NFL game of the week and get 11 picks from 11 very different sources. At the end of the season, I'm going to see which of these sources performed the best over the 21 weeks (17 regular season plus four playoff).
Fortunately for me, for week one, the best game clearly involves the Cleveland Browns. All 11 of us are going to be picking between them and the Dallas Cowboys.
The game is Dallas at Cleveland. The line is Cleveland +5.5, although we're all just going to pick the game straight up.
This list was published on Friday, September 5, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, September 5, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
I wanted to do a weekly NFL column this year... but I wanted to take a different angle toward it than the usual, generic "these are my picks" column or "things to look for" or any of that. So I came to this conclusion.
Each week, I'm going to take the best NFL game of the week and get 11 picks from 11 very different sources. At the end of the season, I'm going to see which of these sources performed the best over the 21 weeks (17 regular season plus four playoff).
Fortunately for me, for week one, the best game clearly involves the Cleveland Browns. All 11 of us are going to be picking between them and the Dallas Cowboys.
The game is Dallas at Cleveland. The line is Cleveland +5.5, although we're all just going to pick the game straight up.
Accuscore. Accuscore is a computer forecaster that runs tens of thousands of simulations of the game. It's picking the Cowboys.
The Accuscore forecast from ESPN.- Former NFL star Eric Allen. Allen now works for ESPN as an analyst. He brings experience to this field like no one else since he's, ya know, actually played in the NFL. He is picking the Cowboys.
- Random number generator. I went to Random.org and used their coin flipping. Home team heads, away team tails. I flipped once, the result was heads, so they're picking the Browns.
- Homeless guy outside my office. There's a really nice homeless guy who has taken up permanent residence outside of my office. I offered to pay him a little bit to give me his weekly NFL pick. He accepted.
He's going with the Cowboys. When I asked him for his reasoning, he said, "Why not?" So zen.
Battle of the mascots. The Browns name originally comes from "Brown Bomber", which was boxing champion Joe Louis's nickname at the time the Cleveland NFL franchise was founded. No one knows this, but it's true. Unfortunately, over time, Browns has just become a nebulous, meaningless team name and mascot.
A very one-sided mascot battle.
So I'm going to say that in a fight between a gun-totin', sarsaparilla-drinkin' Cowboy and the color brown, a Cowboy would win.- Adam, the late '80s fan. My friend Adam hasn't actively watched sports since he was about 11 years old, so all of his knowledge is centered around (1) sports as they were in the late '80s and (2) sports from the late '80s relative to his hometown of Detroit.
He's going with the Cowboys, because he has fond memories of Emmitt Smith, and doesn't really remember anything about the Browns. - Fatter offensive line. I have a working theory that a morbidly obese offensive line is really the key to winning football games. I've never tested it out, but I think this season is the perfect chance.
The five OL starters on the Cowboys have a combined weight of 1,651 pounds, led by RG Leonard Davis at a healthy 353. The five OL starters on the Browns only come in at 1,545 pounds, lowlighted by LG Eric Steinbach at just 295.
The fatter offensive like pick goes to the Cowboys.
A model who may or may not know football. Karmen is a model. I'm not sure if she knows football. But this list was sorely lacking a female presence, so she's on board.
Karmen, our model/expert.
She picked the Cowboys. "Easy," she told me, "I'm a Texas girl."
I wonder if she'll stay loyal to her state if we have to pick Texans-Colts in a few weeks.- Just picking the home team. Tough call, but I'm going to go with the Browns for this one.
- "Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King. Peter King is one of those guys who's been picking NFL games for decades. He's a veteran, but, like most veteran sportswriters, he's seemingly completely out of touch with the modern world (for example, in February of THIS YEAR he made a comment about how ridiculous people look when they talk on Bluetooth earpieces. This year!)
So, I want to see how his knowledge stacks up here. He's going with the Cowboys, 37-31. He believes that Tony Romo will throw for 378 yards (which is a shockingly specific number to throw out in a prediction) and victimize the Browns' suspect cornerbacks. - My pick. I'm picking the Browns here. I think about this game and I just can't see them losing. Cleveland needs a winning team after the Indians' semi-annual bed crapping, and for the Browns to be that winning team, they need to start this season off properly.
This list was published on Friday, September 5, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at