It's that time again! Time for me to blow $121 on dumb Super Bowl bets in my never-ending quest to keep it real.
For those who've been reading here for a while, every year I go to a bunch of semi- to very sketchy online sports books and find the craziest Super Bowl prop bets they're offering. I'm not betting on things like the game itself or the over-under... these are bets designed to let you gamble on the pageantry, the subplots, the entertainment and things of that ilk.
And unlike the other members of the Liberal Media who just report on these bets, I take it a step further and actually make the bets.
Last year, when the dust cleared, even though I only got four of the 11 correct, a few paid off big and I ended up only $14.41 in the hole.
It's time to do it again this year. Here are 11 of the weirdest bets for this year's Super Bowl, Super Bowl XLV... all of which I actually made. They're presented in a rough chronological order to correspond to the game.
I couldn't find any photos of her wearing a cowboy hat, but this photo from "Burlesque" at least shows her in something sort of close-ish.
Will Christina Aguilera wear a cowboy hat while singing the national anthem? Yes - 5/2
They aren't offering odds on "no." Since the game is in Texas, at Cowboys Stadium, there's a chance that Christina Aguilera will be wearing a cowboy hat as a tribute. I suppose there's also a chance that she'll win one for getting topless on the bar at a Coyote Ugly the night before. Although they usually only reward that with a free Jager shot.
I probably would've bet no on this... but they're only letting me bet yes, so my hand has been forced. Therefore, I bet $11 that she cowgirls up. I could win $27.50 if she goes that way.
How long will it take Christina Aguilera to sing the national anthem? Over 1:54 - 20/31
Under 1:54 - 23/20
I was burned last year betting that Carrie Underwood would go under 1:42. And if she didn't have the discipline to keep it tight and bright, then what hope do we possibly have with Christina? When she's singing the anthem, she might make the word "glare" a minute and 54 seconds just by itself. I'm going over with a bullet.
My $11 can win a whopping $7.10. This is the time in the list where I mention that prop bets are almost always crappy bets.
Get that mug on TV, now.
How many times will FOX show Jerry Jones on TV during the game? (Live pictures only, no taped pictures or past video.) Over 3 - 5/4
Under 3 - 20/33
The game is being held in Jerry's house, so even though his Cowboys aren't playing, he should be defrosted to hang around at the game. That being said... I just don't see him dominating the camera time. Unless he finally chooses the Super Bowl as the moment when he begins his next siege of Castle Grayskull.
I bet $11 on the under, with the goal of winning a devilish $6.67.
Will a punt by any team hit the scoreboard during the game? Yes - 10/1
No - 1/25
OK. So back in a preseason game in 2009, after Cowboys Stadium opened, a punter from the Tennessee Titans hit the giant scoreboard. No one has hit it since, and no one's hit it in a regular season game. The safe money is on no one punting into the scoreboard.
BUT... I'm not betting $11 to win 44 cents. I'd rather spend the $11 on a DVD box set of the first season of "Becker". So I'm hoping they add a few extra lights to the scoreboard for the Super Bowl that make it an easier target and that, combined with nerves, leads to one of the punters booming one into it.
I bet $11 to win $110. Now that's what I'm talkin' 'bout.
First End Zone Celebration Touchdown spike - 2/1
Championship Belt - 2/1
Round-off or backflip - 5/1
Snow angel - 10/1
Chicken dance - 5/1
Dunks football through the uprights - 7/2
Dirty bird - 5/1
Shows his biceps - 6/1
The worm - 15/1
Pulls out cell phone - 12/1
Throat slash - 5/1
Riverdance - 12/1
Takes cheerleader's pom poms - 15/1
Pulls out Sharpie, signs football - 15/1
Moons fans - 20/1
Quiets the crowd - 5/1
Military salute - 7/1
The Squirrel - 12/1
Funky Chicken - 15/1
Lambeau Leap - 2/1
The Shuffle - 15/1
Fun Bunch - 15/1
I know, I know, he's long gone. This was the only photo I could find of a Steeler flexing his bicep.
So many choices. But there are only a few truly viable ones. Right off the bad I'll rule out the ridiculous ones like pulling out a cell phone, taking pom poms, pulling out a Sharpie, throat slash or mooning the fans. Those will never happen again. Also, if anyone tries that, one of Roger Goodell's snipers will take him out before he's even a quarter of the way through.
I also feel confident cutting things that are outdated or uncool -- snow angel, chicken dance, dirty bird, the worm, Riverdance (this ain't "Baseketball), the squirrel, the funky chicken, the shuffle, and whatever the fun bunch is.
I'll get rid of the military salute since that's mainly a LaDanian Tomlinson thing and the Jets are sitting at home for this. Round-off or backflip doesn't seem practical with the players at our disposal; I don't think either team signed Ozzie Smith to come in and play the slot receiver for the Super Bowl. And quieting the crowd is out, since both teams have equal fan representation, so it's better to encourage than quiet.
Dunking over the goalpost and spiking are usually less common in the Super Bowl because players want to hang on to the balls when they score, so they can autograph them and sell them when they're broke in 20 years.
So that leaves me with the belt, the biceps and the Lambeau leap. I'm going to rule out the Lambeau leap since the entire field is clogged with VIPs, media and Tony Siragusa, so there's no path to the fans. The championship belt is a great option if I think Aaron Rodgers is going to score the first touchdown. Which I really don't. I think it gets pounded in... and we see the bicep flex.
So, in conclusion, I bet $11 on the first TD celebration being a player showing his biceps. At 6/1, I can win $66 for this.
Jessica on the left, Ashley on the right.
Who will FOX show first on TV during the game? Jessica Szohr (girlfriend of Aaron Rodgers) - 5/7
Ashley Harlan (fiancee of Ben Roethlisberger) - 1/1
I had to include photos since I don't think I'd recognize either of these dames if they were walking down the street wearing shirts that said "I am either Jessica Szohr or Ashley Harlan." It was so much easier last year when Reggie Bush was with Kim Kardashian.
After some waffling, I went with Ashley Harlan. Even though Jessica Szohr is loosely famous and Ashley Harlan isn't, I think it makes more sense to show Roethlisberger's woman, since the NFL is desperately trying to rehabilitate his image just in case he wins this thing and kinda sorta has to replace Tom Brady as the best winner in the sport. How better to show that his evil days are behind him than showing he's engaged to an attractive, un-roofied, consenting woman?
I put $11 on Ashley with the chance to win $11 right back.
What will Fergie be wearing in her first appearance in the halftime show? Pants (below knees) - 1/1
Shorts (above knees) - 3/1
Skirt or dress - 1/1
Thong/g-string/bikini bottom - 10/1
Tight bodysuit - 7/1
The Black Eyed Peas are performing. Interestingly enough, no one was offering bets on their possible set lists. I guess there are only so many ways you can shuffle "Let's Get It Started", "Boom Boom Pow" and their "I've Had the Time Of My Life" massacre.
So what's Fergie going to wear? I'll rule out the thong option -- they might as well let us bet on whether she's going to be wearing a sun-shaped metallic nipple ring. Not even FOX would let her wear a thong during the Super Bowl (even though, from a synergy perspective, it would give FOX News a lot of fodder to discuss the next day).
I don't see pants either. She might go skirt or dress since this is a big, classy thing -- but they're going to be doing upbeat songs, not elegant songs. That brings us to either shorts or a bodysuit. And while I can absolutely see the bodysuit happening... it feels like a shorts occasion. (Which also covers me if she decides to come out dressed like a Cowboys cheerleader.)
I bet $11 on shorts, to win a possible $33.
How many times will FOX mention Brett Favre on TV during the game? (Must say "Brett Favre" exactly.) Over 2.5 - 1/2
Under 2.5 - 3/2
Not only was Brett Favre the last quarterback to win a Super Bowl for the Packers... not only was Brett Favre replaced by Aaron Rodgers who's now proving that was a good decision... and not only Brett Favre the older, less handsy version of Ben Roethlisberger -- but I'm pretty sure the *average* NFL game has at least three mentions of Brett Favre. There are a million ways for them to massage his name into the broadcast.
I bet $11 on the over, with the chance to pocket a cool $5.50.
Talking of memories past.
Who will have more total passing yards, Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre from Super Bowl XXXI? Rodgers goes over 246 - 10/11
Favre's 246 remains higher - 5/6
I love this bet. It's the ultimate "Can Aaron Rodgers get out of Brett Favre's giant, three-legged shadow?" question. When Favre led the Packers to his only Super Bowl win, he threw for 246. I guess that's why Desmond Howard was the MVP of that game.
I think Aaron Rodgers can throw for 247 yards in his sleep right now, even against the beloved Steelers defense. I bet $11 on Rodgers, with the chance to win $10.
How many NFL players will be arrested during Super Bowl weekend? Over 0.5 players - 3/2
Under 0.5 players - 1/2
Will I regret betting on the self-control of the entire NFL player base? Possibly. Did I do it anyway? I guess I just have faith in humanity.
I bet $11 on the under, meaning that no NFL player will be arrested (or, since it was 0.5 players or less, that only Doug Flutie might be arrested) -- possible haul from this is $5.50.
Which Super Bowl commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today's annual ad meter? Bud Light - 11/4
Budweiser - 11/4
Doritos - 11/2
GoDaddy.com - 10/1
Pepsi Max - 6/1
Skechers - 12/1
Teleflora - 15/1
The field - 5/2
Last year I won by betting the field. Snickers put Betty White in a commercial, won the Ad Meter, and then launched Betty White to the point of remarkable oversaturation. That's the Internet era for you.
I have a gut feeling on this one. I feel like this is the year that Bud Light makes its comeback. I don't know why, but I just think they've had a few so-so years and are due to pop. So I put $11 on Bud Light (thanks to nothing more than a feeling) with a chance to win $30.25.
If I win all 11 bets I'll win $312.52 (plus get my initial $121 back). Let's go, random occurrences!
This post was originally published on Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Sports.