11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 4, Jets at Saints
Published Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM
For those new here, every week for the entire NFL season, I use 11 different methods to predict the outcome of one game. Then after the Super Bowl I evaluate how the 11 different methods did, and make broad, sweeping generalizations based around this small sample size. Hey, that kinda makes me like every over-55 sportswriter in America!
This week's game is the 3-0 New York Jets at the 3-0 New Orleans Saints. The line is the Saints -7 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM
For those new here, every week for the entire NFL season, I use 11 different methods to predict the outcome of one game. Then after the Super Bowl I evaluate how the 11 different methods did, and make broad, sweeping generalizations based around this small sample size. Hey, that kinda makes me like every over-55 sportswriter in America!
This week's game is the 3-0 New York Jets at the 3-0 New Orleans Saints. The line is the Saints -7 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (1-2) So in the past weeks, I've just done the battle with the literal representation of the mascots battling. I've decided to branch out a little bit and, from now on, I'm going to match up three different possibilities for the mascot.
I can't even begin to explain what's going on in this caption. Read the point to make sense of it.
For example, this week I've got the Jets represented by a fighter Jet, the dancin' Jets gang from "West Side Story", and the magazine "Jet"... and the Saints represented by an actual Saint, the Boondock Saints and the St. Pauli's Girl.
I think the fighter jet defeats the saint... ever since God stopped performing miracles, technology has really held a significant battle advantage over spirituality. The Boondock Saints easily beat the Jets... a pirouette isn't going to stop a bullet.
In the deciding matchup, "Jet" magazine beats St. Pauli's Girl... because I've tried drinking St. Pauli's Girl and it does NOT taste very good... while "Jet" goes down smooooooooth. The pick is the Jets.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (3-0) After three weeks, only ESPN's Sports Guy is undefeated. This week he's going with the Saints; he ranks the Saints the 4th best team in the NFL, the Jets 5th.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (2-1) For this measurement, I look at the popularity ranks of each team, based on a Harris poll, for the past 11 years. Then I look at how much the popularity has varied. I say: Whichever team has a lower variance has more loyal fans, and I pick that team to win.
The Jets have gone anywhere from 6th most popular (in 2004, when they went 10-6 and made the second round of the playoffs) to 22nd most popular. Their statistical variance works out to a 23.5, making their fans the 21st most loyal out of the 32 NFL teams.
The Saints have gone anywhere from 17th most popular to 31st most popular. Their variance is slightly higher, at 26.25, meaning their fans are the 23rd most loyal. So the pick is the Jets, whose fans are slightly less fair weather.
Madden 10 simulation. (1-2) For the second straight week, it was a one-sided affair, with the underdog beating the hell out of the favorite. The Jets destroyed the Saints, 41-14. Drew Brees threw two TDs and two INTs for the Saints, including one interception to seal the loss. Mark Sanchez threw four TDs and no INTs for the Jets.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (2-1) In contrast to Madden 10's up-to-the-second rosters, I also have the two teams play in Tecmo Super Bowl, a NES game that came out 18 years ago.
This game was high-scoring and close... and the Saints tried to give it away with a late turnover... but, in the end, their attack, led by Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, managed to pull it out, 31-28.- More intelligent quarterback. (1-2) For this pick, I compare the Wonderlic intelligence tests scores that both teams' QBs took before they were drafted. The theory: The smarter the quarterback, the better off the team is.
Drew Brees on the Saints scored a high (for the NFL, at least) 28. Mark Sanchez on the Jets ALSO scored a 28.
The pick is the Jets, though, because Sanchez scored that high even though, like all standardized tests, I'm sure this one was culturally biased. - My parents' dog. (2-1) For this pick, I have my parents put two biscuits on opposite sides of the room, one representing each team. Then they put their dog, Laska, in the room and see which biscuit she picks.
Maybe Laska is going to realize that I'm responsible her for getting a biscuit every Friday, so when she sees me at Thanksgiving she won't be so indifferent/subtly hostile toward me. But probably not.
This week she went straight for the Saints biscuit.
Accuscore. (2-1) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game and uses that to predict a winner. This week the computer strongly favors the Saints, winning more than two-thirds of the time.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (1-2) For this, I find game analysis from the world's most intelligent and rational people: Internet sports message board commenters. Then I stage a debate and determine who won. Let's break it down. (This week I organized it a little different, where I offer my commentary after each of the four comments.)
mechew318: I'm sorry but didn't you [New Orleans] just struggle against Buffalo? I dont remember the last time Buffalo played a single quarter really well let alone a complete 4, yet you found a way to keep that one close.
I don't love his first argument -- using his memories of Buffalo this year just smacks of an unreliable narrator. He also has Drew Brees wishing he was Tom Brady (?) and having tons of incomplete passes to the sidelines. Yet... in the end, he sees it being a close score. He's really all over the place. Not a strong start for the Jets.
Jets will shut down your running game and rush your 5'11" qb to wishing he was Brady. The only bombs he'll be throwing will be to the bench and the upper tier to avoid sacks.
I like NO but Jets are extremely balanced and well coached. I say 27-24 Jets. NO will have too many turnovers and Jets will not let that be the winning advantage.SaintsAre2Good: lmao.. ignorant fans from teams flock to us, its a known fact... everyone wants to say ####.
Wow, picking the Saints by 32 points seems pretty ambitious. I'd take that action. His spelling and grammar is bad, peaking with the one insult that sums up the state of the Internet in 2009: "your stupid."
We ran all over buffalo, It was part of the plan to bring the running game into effect.. with gust of over 30mph winds at time, drew couldn't really heave the ball like he wanted.. Drew didnt' get any INTs, did well on complitions but thats tno the point, 3 running backs ran over everyone
your stupid mechew get lost clown.. 09 Is our season.. dumb ####. Black and Gold superbowl
saints by 32+HomeOfTheJETS: IF YOU WATCHED SPORTSCENTER TODAY U WOULD KNOT THAT THEY SET UP A CLIP AND THE TITLE WAS REX RYANS DEFENSES VS. DREW BREES AND DREW WAS OWNED BIG TIME.......
I looked into Best Buy's Geek Squad and they will fix a broken Caps Lock button for $30 (or you could buy a new keyboard for half that). Also, citing the picks of different ESPN experts rarely makes you look intelligent. Ultimately, I find it mind-boggling that this guy would take the "fans can't make the outcome" route, since he's responsible for about 500 of the 1,400 ESPN message board posts about this game... many of which include his personal predictions.
ALSO THE PREDICTIONS WAS SPLIT WITH A FELLOW AFC SOUTH (DERRICK BROOKS) PICKED THE SAINTS WHILE MARCELLUS WILEY BRING UP THE POINT THAT I'VE BEEN BRING UP ALL WEEK (GREAT DEFENSES OWNS GREAT OFFENSES) AND PICK THE J-E-T-S JETS, JETS, JETS!
ALSO ALL THE PREDICTIONS NEED TO STOP. US FANS CANT MAKE THE OUTCOME. THE PLAYERS WILL...... IF ANY OTHER PERSON PREDICTS ANOTHER SCORE I PROMISE YOU IF YOUR PREDICTION IS A WRONG SCORE OR WRONG WINNER (JETS OR SAINTS BOTH) I WILL OWN YOU IN THIS BLOG AFTER THE GAME AND BRING UP YOUR PREDICTION AND U WILL BE MADE A LAUGHING STOCK..... THATS ALL FANS IN HERE...... AND AS OF RIGHT NOW, MY OLD PREDICTION IS BANISHED.Morphine19888: this is gonna be a really good game... gonna be close by 3 or 4 pts at the end of the game. hope pierre has a breakout game and brees has 3 td..geaux saints!! good luck jets, hoping for an injury free game
Really? You're going with the "let's just hope nobody gets hurt" approach? This isn't your son's T-ball game. Man.
No one makes a convincing argument but the Jets fans are even weaker than the Saints fans, so the pick is the Saints. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (2-1) King thinks that the defense schemes concocted by New York's Rex Ryan will confuse Drew Brees -- like they apparently did one time, many years ago, when Ryan was with the Ravens and Brees was a rookie. But he still picks the Saints to win, 23-20.
- My pick. (1-2) As much as I want to go with the less popular Jets here, I think the Saints have a legit shot at being a contender this year... and I don't have that much faith in the Jets. So I'm picking the Saints.
This list was published on Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at