11 Picks for 2009 NFL Playoffs Week 2, Jets at Chargers
Published Saturday, January 16, 2010 at 06:00:00 AM
Each week through the NFL season and playoffs, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. With only three weeks left, almost all of the records are bunching towards center... with the exception of a few standouts in each direction. One standout in a good direction: My parents' dog. One standout in a bad direction: My personal picks.
This week's playoff game is the New York Jets at the San Diego Chargers. The line is San Diego -7.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, January 16, 2010 at 06:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, January 16, 2010 at 06:00:00 AM
Each week through the NFL season and playoffs, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. With only three weeks left, almost all of the records are bunching towards center... with the exception of a few standouts in each direction. One standout in a good direction: My parents' dog. One standout in a bad direction: My personal picks.
This week's playoff game is the New York Jets at the San Diego Chargers. The line is San Diego -7.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (8-10) It's a best-of-three battle between different representations of each team's mascot. The first one is the literal interpretation: A fighter jet against a lightning storm. This one has to go to the Chargers -- it wouldn't be a good battle because there's nothing the jet can do to hurt the lightning... but, even though the chances are small, the lightning could take down the jet.
The second battle is much stranger. It's Jet Jaguar from the old "Godzilla" movies against Bald Bull of Mike Tyson's Punch-Out! fame... known for his signature move, the bull charge. As much as Bald Bull is pure evil (I discussed this at length in my 11 Biggest Assholes in Mike Tyson's Punch-Out list)... I don't see him being able to take on an enemy that can hang with Godzilla, Mothra and company. This one goes to the Jets, and we're tied 1-1 going into the final battle.
Here, I'm pitting Jet Li against "Charles in Charge". Feels like almost a coin flip -- Jet Li has had some decent movies and some bombs; "Charles in Charge" had one of the best theme songs of all time but it was extraordinarily cheesy. In the end, the pick is Jet Li -- as much as I love Scott Baio, even he tries to disassociate from "Charles in Charge", whereas Jet Li is even proud of "Unleashed" and "Cradle 2 The Grave". The winner: Jets, 2-1.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (11-7) ESPN's Sports Guy is in first place overall after 18 weeks of picking on this list. Last week, he absolutely murdered the Jets... then they went out and smoked Cincinnati. This week he's completely changing his tune and picking them to win a close one in San Diego -- Jets 20, Chargers 19.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (7-11) For this measure, I look at the popularity scores of each of the teams since 1998 (based on the results of an annual Harris poll asking fans to name their favorite team). I calculate how much each team's score has fluctuated in that time and pick a team based on which fan base has wavered less.
Neither of these teams performs particularly well. The New York Jets fans are 21st out of the 32 NFL fan bases -- the Jets have been as popular as 6th (in 2004) and as low as 22nd (just two years after). Their statistical variance is 23.5.
The Chargers, however, are in the cellar. They've been as high as 10th most popular (in 2007) and as low as 31st (just three years earlier). Their statistical variance is 38.27, good for 29th place in the NFL. (Ahead of only the Eagles, Rams and Colts.) So the pick is the Jets. - Madden 10 simulation. (10-8) Thanks to @JohnIsello on Twitter for running this for me once again. Next year, if I'm going to do a video game simulation, I really ought to get the game.
Using Madden 10's ultra-realistic gameplay and up-to-the-minute rosters, this game turned out to be... well, pretty awful. According to John, "Jets over Chargers 14-6. Sanchez threw 2 TD's. Jets got the lead early despite a total offense of 99 yards for the whole game."
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (8-10) Tecmo Super Bowl, an iconic NES game from 1991, does not have Madden 10's gameplay or rosters. But it runs a damn good simulation too. This week the Jets destroyed the Chargers 34-14, forcing a billion turnovers and dominating both sides.
- More intelligent quarterback. (8-10) For this measure, I look at the Wonderlic scores of both teams' starting quarterbacks. The Wonderlic is a 50-question intelligence test that each player takes before the NFL draft.
Mark Sanchez of the Jets got a 28 coming out of USC just last year. Philip Rivers of the Chargers got a slightly higher score, a 30, on his was out of NC State. So the pick (finally) is the Chargers. - My parents' dog. (10-8) For Laska's pick, my parents place two biscuits down, one representing each team. Whichever one Laska eats represents her pick.
This week she ate the Chargers biscuit, then ate it while menacingly standing over the Jets biscuit. She's like a dog version of Shawne Merriman.
Accuscore. (9-9) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game in order to predict a winner. It sees San Diego winning more than two-thirds of the time, so the pick is the Chargers.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (8-10) Here, I consult with the minds on ESPN's message board about the game to see what the fans are predicting. I arrange some choice comments like a debate and determine a winner.
merlino103092: the jets aint puttin up 37 love ny but that aint happening...should be a LOT closer then ppl think i say jets 20-17!!!
This was a classic fake out. First I thought it was a Chargers fan, then a Giants fan (or NYC sympathizer), THEN I realized it was a Jets fan with tempered observations. Keeping me guessing. Tricky.adrianjrflores: I like how all the jets fans are coming out of their crevices now that they have a measly win streak, where where they when sanchez was chucking them into the hands of the defenses!! now that there savior favre is gone they have to depend on a rookie to get them to where a future hall of famer couldn't and is with another team. yeah they have the defense but what else, and yes defense win championships but you also have to score with your offense- i dont think your defense will put up 21+ points on the board.
The sentence where he misuses there/their and wrote "there savior favre" I first read as "there savoir faire." No one in the history of sports message boards has ever used the term "savoir faire" though, I suppose.derv831: Chargers are overated beat raiders 2x,chiefs 2x, cleveland , giants and broncos ( when they were on down fall) redskins and any team over 500 either lost or won by very close score. Michael Irvin should be kicked off of Gameday he is no way an analyst and out of his league.Marshall Faulk should beat him down saturday the way he was slurring and carrying on.And he don't belong in the hof either!
This is interesting. It starts with a decent deconstruction of San Diego's exceptional regular season record... then makes a sharp left turn into an anti-Michael Irvin rant. The Jets fans have me on my toes.Bolts got a shot: Jets fans are delusional. They really think because they won a couple games, 2 games against second string players and the playoff game against the Bengals who did nothing well beside run the ball, did anyone notice how many wide open receivers Palmer overthrew? RIVERS will hit them in stride for big plays, this game really isn't close in my opinion, worst possible matchup for the Jets who want to control the ball and keep the score down, 30-10 final.
This Chargers fan begins by deconstructing New York's recent success... but, unlike the Jets fan above, doesn't get distracted with a rant against studio commentators. A good finale to the debate and a win for the Chargers fans. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (10-8) Peter King was the overall winner in my picks last year, and has himself in good position to contend again. He likes the Chargers winning 23-20, with the comment "If the Jets had two Darrelle Revises I'd pick them, but I think Rivers makes enough plays to win a close one."
- My pick. (7-11) I know picking San Diego in the playoffs is a dangerous, dangerous thing to do. But I really feel like they're due. Both feel kinda like smoke-and-mirrors teams, but the Chargers less so. So that's my pick. Maybe it'll get me out of the basement going into the AFC and NFC Championships.
This list was published on Saturday, January 16, 2010 at 06:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at