11 Picks for NFL Week 4, Packers at Bucs
Published Friday, September 26, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
This is the fourth week of using 11 different methods to predict the winner of an NFL game.
After three weeks, there are two 3-0 pickers (Peter King from "SI", and Karmen, the model who may or may not know football)... and two 0-3 (just picking the home team, and me).
This week, the game we're all picking is Green Bay at Tampa Bay. The line is Tampa Bay -1.5, although we're all just going to pick the game straight up.
This list was published on Friday, September 26, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, September 26, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
This is the fourth week of using 11 different methods to predict the winner of an NFL game.
After three weeks, there are two 3-0 pickers (Peter King from "SI", and Karmen, the model who may or may not know football)... and two 0-3 (just picking the home team, and me).
This week, the game we're all picking is Green Bay at Tampa Bay. The line is Tampa Bay -1.5, although we're all just going to pick the game straight up.
Accuscore. (1-2 on the season) Accuscore, a computer program that runs thousands of simulations of the game, just slightly favors the Packers, 51 percent to 48 percent. Not sure what happened to the missing one percent. I'm not going to question the computer, though. I don't want this to be the day that Accuscore becomes self-aware.
The computer likes Green Bay, ever so slightly.- Former NFL star Eric Allen. (2-1) (Theoretically) using the knowledge he acquired as a player in the NFL, Allen is going with the Packers.
- Random number generator. (1-2) Random.org's coin flipper came up tails. I go heads = home team, tails = away team, so the random number is going with the Packers.
- Homeless guy outside my office. (2-1) He likes the Buccaneers. He also wanted me to pass on the message that, back when his kids turned 18, he was still able to hang with them, dancing-wise.
Battle of the mascots. (2-1) The Packers got their name because the team founder got money for uniforms from his employer, the Indian Packing Company. So let's pit a meat packer against a pirate. I think we all pick the pirate. This one goes to the Buccaneers.
The pirate beats the meat packer in the battle of the mascots.- Adam, the late '80s fan. (1-2) Adam is all about the Packers this week. I spoke to him, and, based on his knowledge gathered in 1992, he's excited that the Packers are benching Don Majkowski to give that hot shot second-year guy Brett Favre a shot. He thinks the Favre-Sterling Sharpe combination is going to be lethal.
- Fatter offensive line. (2-1) In an incredibly close battle, the Green Bay offensive line outweighs the Tampa Bay offensive line, 1,549 pounds to 1,538 pounds. That's so negligible! It could fluctuate depending on what these 10 guys eat for breakfast. But, regardless, the pick is the Packers.
A model who may or may not know football. (3-0) Karmen likes the Buccaneers this week. She wrote me: "Tampa! This is a middle of the night, I've been on set all day, intuitive hunch. :)" So far her hunches are 3-0. I can't argue.
Karmen, our model/expert.- Just picking the home team. (0-3) This week, it's the Buccaneers. So far this year this method has completely failed, at least with the weekly game on this site.
- "Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King. (3-0) King likes the Buccaneers winning a close one, 20-17. I think he really likes teams to score two TDs and two FGs. Last week he predicted the Jags, 20-19. And the week before he picked the Patriots, 20-19. I would mock, but he's 3-0 on the year and I'm 0-3. And the last thing I want is Peter King starting a SCOOORRE-BOOAARRRD chant.
- My pick. (0-3) Everything in my mind is saying Green Bay. My mind has been wrong all three of the previous weeks. So I'm pulling the George Constanza move and doing the opposite of what I think. Buccaneers all the way.
This list was published on Friday, September 26, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at